Matt Simmons, author of Twilight in the Desert, is a well known pessimist on mideast oil production, but I’ve never seen him as negative as he is in this PDF presentation. If he’s right, we are in deep trouble.
… you better get your “plan b” in place
For what it’s worth, I endorse the carbon tax. This article hits all the reasons why:
Yes, I’m talking about a carbon tax — the only mechanism powerful and direct enough for the daunting task of phasing out fossil fuels. Conventional “market forces” would be too volatile in the short term and too weak in the long term to provide the needed incentives, and would ravage the poor and middle class besides. And sole reliance on market forces — say, rising crude oil prices due to shrinking supplies — would simply open the door to massive development of synthetic fuels such as tar sands, liquefied coal and oil shale, bringing environmental and climate consequences many times worse than the oil they would replace.
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Sound awful? Only if we obsess over the empty part of the glass. Don’t forget, a heavy carbon tax means enormous revenues, enough to eliminate not just workers’ social security payments but, most likely, all federal income taxes on everyone’s first $100,000 of income, and state sales taxes to boot. Recycling the tax windfall through rebates or tax shifts will ensure that in the aggregate the nation’s hundred million households have as much money as now. Although energy will cost a lot more, families that now use less energy than average (that’s almost all poor families and many middle-class ones) will end up with more spending money than now.
- more here
(This is in line with my old thinking, but the words “carbon tax” are better, and will play better, especially as understanding of Global Warming spreads.)
cleverchimp has an interesting discussion going. I learned about it when I saw the “trackback” link come in for one of my old bicycle fuel efficiency posts.
It seems to confirm what we learned earlier, that biking foods are not equal (in dollar or environmental costs), and that on a per-mile basis, electricity beats many foods.
(There are also calendars for Los Angeles and Coachella Valley, and some photos. At this point, LA is way more active.)
American presidents have long tested the bounds of executive power during wartime. But when it comes to protecting its secrets, the Bush administration has flexed unilateral power to a degree never before seen in U.S. history.
- more here
Maybe there’s a reason to stick to Comedy Channel for the news …
Shortly after three suspected terrorists committed suicide (right after Bill O’Reilly’s visit, of course), the Pentagon decided to expel all journalists from Guantanamo Bay. This, it seems, does not include the propaganda arm of the White House: Fox News.
- more here
“Boutique” gasoline blends to help states meet clean air rules are not a factor in higher prices as
President Bush has suggested, says a draft of a study ordered by the White House.
- more here
Two East Carolina University assistant professors have compared student reaction to coverage of the 2004 presidential race by CBS News and by The Daily Show. They’ve concluded that Stewart show watchers are more cynical about candidates, campaigns, the electoral system and the news media than are network news viewers.
If you read the Washington Post account of this study, which was originally published in the journal American Politics Research, you might think this was bad news: “This is not funny: Jon Stewart and his hit Comedy Central cable show may be poisoning democracy…. Young people who watch Stewart’s faux news program… develop cynical views about politics and politicians that could lead them to just say no to voting,” writes Post columnist Richard Morin.
But if you actually read the academic paper, or the interview with the authors in the not-so-much-MSM Daily Reflector, you’ll see another angle. It turns out that Stewart fans also trust their own knowledge of politics more than do network watchers. Young Daily Show viewers blame the elites who run the political-media system for the mess we’re in, not themselves. They think they really get what politics is actually all about. And, says the study, here’s an idea worth entertaining: “citizens who understand politics are more likely to participate than those who do not.”
- more here
A California brown pelican flew through the windshield of a motorist on the Pacific Coast Highway in Orange County Thursday, and wildlife officials said the bird was probably intoxicated by a chemical in the water.
Though toxicology tests take several weeks, the odd bird behavior was likely the result of poisoning from domoic acid, which has been found in the ocean in the area, said Lisa Birkle, assistant wildlife director at the Wetlands and Wildlife Care Center in Huntington Beach.
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Domoic acid poisoning was the most likely cause of a 1961 invasion of thousands of frantic seabirds in Northern California that inspired Alfred Hitchcock’s film “The Birds.”
- more here
Cannondale makes a bike they call the Bad Boy. It’s an “urban” bike in the modern parlance, built along mountain bike lines, but with slicks for fast city riding. I’ve wanted one.
At the same time, I had my old, custom, rigid, mountain bike hanging in the garage. It was pricey and high-tech in its day, with a Cannondale 3.0 frame, a Ritchey Pro-Logic fork, Mavic cranks and an otherwise Shimano XT drivetrain, and a whole lot of other Pro-Logic parts. It weighed under 24 pounds as a mountain bike, which was pretty good. Maybe the amazing thing is that we used to ride rigids like that everywhere. I even took that thing down Mammoth mountain in the old days, along the Kamikaze route.
Anyway, I dug out and washed off that bike yesterday. It was in better shape than I remembered, with truer wheels than I feared. It was all good enough that I went off to buy some Ritchey Tom Slick city tires (26×1.4) and set myself up an urban bike:
I just went for a 20 mile spin and had a lot of fun. It’s actually the lightest (20-22 pounds) bike I’ve got right now, and with the slicks the easiest rolling.
I think I’ve got my in-town beater. It’s a little twitchy on the steering with the slicks, but I’ll pay attention. The narrow handlebars are kind of funny too. They were all the style back in the day.
Update: I forgot the weirdest element of 1980’s light mountain bike technology, Ringle’ skewers and seatpost quick-release. They are light, but the funny thing is that they don’t really work in the “cam action.” You’ve got to use two hands and snug them down by the threads, screwing them tighter. The photo also shows the well-used aluminium/carbon-fiber seat post:
